How to Pick the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Game with Odds, Spread, Betting Line and Stats – October 21

Published 12:40 pm Sunday, October 20, 2024

The matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning at 7:30 PM ET on Monday has lots of betting possibilities to consider. With that in mind, here’s an in-depth look at our best bets, along with picks and predictions.

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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Picks

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Total Pick

Pick OU: Under 6.5 (model projecting 5.9 goals)

  • Of Toronto’s 89 games last season, 46 finished above this game’s total of 6.5 goals.
  • Tampa Bay played 44 games last season with more than 6.5 goals.
  • The two teams combined to score 7.1 goals per game, 0.6 more than this one’s total.
  • These two teams allowed a combined 6.4 goals per game, 0.1 fewer than this one’s total.
  • The Maple Leafs were second in goals scored in the league, and the Lightning were fifth.
  • The Lightning were 22nd in the league in goals allowed, and the Maple Leafs were 21st.

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Moneyline Pick

Maple Leafs Moneyline: -145

  • The Maple Leafs were favored on the moneyline 67 times last season, and went 39-28 in those games.
  • Toronto had a 25-15 record (winning 62.5% of its games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -145 or shorter.
  • The Maple Leafs have an implied moneyline win probability of 59.2% in this game.

Lightning Moneyline: +123

  • The Lightning were an underdog 35 times last season, and upset their opponent 15 times.
  • Tampa Bay was 4-7 last season when oddsmakers made them underdogs of +123 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline implies a 44.8% chance of victory for the Lightning.

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Score Prediction

Prediction:
Toronto 4, Tampa Bay 3

Maple Leafs Points Leaders (2023-24)

  • Auston Matthews was important to Toronto’s offense last season, racking up 107 points in 81 games.
  • William Nylander had 40 goals and 58 assists for Toronto last season, totaling 98 points (1.2 per game).
  • On 158 shots, Mitchell Marner generated 85 points (26 goals, 59 assists) for Toronto last season.
  • In the 27 games Anthony Stolarz played a season ago, his save percentage was .925, fourth-best in the league.

Lightning Points Leaders (2023-24)

  • Nikita Kucherov had 44 goals (0.5 per game) and 100 assists (1.2 per game) last season, taking 3.7 shots per game and shooting 14.4%. That made him among the leaders for Tampa Bay with 144 total points (1.8 per game).
  • Brayden Point was a top contributor for Tampa Bay, with 90 total points. He scored 46 goals and provided 44 assists in 81 games.
  • Tampa Bay’s Jake Guentzel had 77 points, courtesy of 30 goals (third on team) and 47 assists (fourth).
  • Andrei Vasilevskiy had a .900 save percentage (40th in the league) last season, conceding 148 goals (2.9 goals against average). He compiled a 30-20-2 record between the pipes for Tampa Bay.

Maple Leafs’ Schedule

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Date Opponent Score Home/Away Moneyline
10/12/2024 Penguins W 4-2 Home -187
10/16/2024 Kings W 6-2 Home -196
10/19/2024 Rangers L 4-1 Home -127
10/21/2024 Lightning Home -145
10/22/2024 Blue Jackets Away
10/24/2024 Blues Home
10/26/2024 Bruins Away

Lightning’s Schedule

Date Opponent Score Home/Away Moneyline
10/15/2024 Canucks W 4-1 Home -135
10/17/2024 Golden Knights W 4-3 Home -152
10/19/2024 Senators L 5-4 Away -133
10/21/2024 Maple Leafs Away +123
10/22/2024 Devils Away
10/24/2024 Wild Home
10/26/2024 Capitals Home

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Toronto vs. Tampa Bay Game Info

  • Date: Monday, October 21, 2024
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • How to watch on TV: NHL Network
  • Live Stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario
  • Venue: Scotiabank Arena

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